Message-ID: <13715126.1075856424215.JavaMail.evans@thyme>
Date: Fri, 20 Apr 2001 03:29:00 -0700 (PDT)
From: nelson.neale@enron.com
To: vince.kaminski@enron.com, vasant.shanbhogue@enron.com
Subject: Petrochem Desk
Mime-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
X-From: Nelson Neale
X-To: Vince J Kaminski, Vasant Shanbhogue
X-cc: 
X-bcc: 
X-Folder: \Vincent_Kaminski_Jun2001_2\Notes Folders\Discussion threads
X-Origin: Kaminski-V
X-FileName: vkamins.nsf

I had a chance to speak with Christian LeBroc this morning with regard to 
curve building for petrochemicals.  As it turns out, Christian left RAC in 
April and joined the Petrochem Desk as a trader.  Previous efforts at 
construction of a forward curve by the group have focused on intuition or 
SWAGs.  Unfortunately, the group had a rough P&L year with at least some of 
the blame directed toward the forward curve or lack thereof.  When asked 
about the fundamentals group, Christian indicated that they'd only been 
around about 3-4 months and are not yet well-suited to curve building.  John 
Nowlan is indeed the head of the group.   

From a timing perspective, I told Christian that it would probably take at 
least 6-8 weeks to develop a curve, especially considering the need to 
understand the key market drivers/fundamentals.  As was suggested yesterday 
during our meeting, a strong relationship between petrochemicals and a NYMEX 
component (e.g., crude oil) would provide a great beginning point--we could 
then potentially strengthen/augment  this relationship with other key factors 
(e.g., supply and demand terms) borne out of our market research.

Nelson